What I learned from Dr Michael Ivanovitch

What I learned from Dr. Michael Ivanovitch – 28 April 2010

Seminar subject;

  • Outlook for World’s Financial Markets
  • The Impact of EU’s Sovereign Risks on Turkish Economy

ECB

  • Bank lending too low
    It want recovery unless it runs the other way
  • The interest rates won’t go up any time soon
  • Potential GDP growth 2%

US

  • Potential GDP growth 3%
  • Banks’ capital base have eroded, therefore trying to rebuild back

Indonesia

  • Potential GDP growth 6%

! Savings rate UP Trade surplus UP; it is not related to currency

Other notes

  • Transition to a stable and sustainable growth.
  • Errors of monetary policy are possible, especially in countries whose economies are just booming out or are in the very early stages of recovery.
  • Investors should favor asset markets where economies are already on the recovery path, and where stimulus packages are being reviewed.
  • Equities and commodities are our preferred asset classes. Fixed-income instruments will experience a serious downward correction.
  • The Euro will be intact and a cease of using Euro will not be the case.